Daily Killings in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent During Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Government Statistics

The typical number of daily homicides monthly in the country has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per fresh administrative data. But, public safety experts have warned that homicide data may not point to improved national stability.

Notable Decline in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in the month of November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September. This information was delivered by the chief of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we have seen over these months is extremely significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, noting that the previous month the smallest number of homicides were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Fierce cartel internal conflicts, alongside the administration's heavily military operations to take on the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in the past few years. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a murder figure over 4x greater than that of the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety plan for an apparently sharper reduction in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The main elements of the President's safety plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Increased collaboration between government agencies.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

But, public safety researchers warned that using homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of peace was misleading. This is particularly true considering the rise in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be positive news if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer valid for assessing the context of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the desire to properly identify and categorize bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of daily killings was similarly concerning because it might obscure days when there were especially spiking levels of murders.

“Employing the per-day mean makes spikes of violence unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the government can point to the success of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, per government data. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

Yet despite these efforts, Mexico continues to be plagued by extreme bloodshed, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a notable killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the past year.

Weeks later, thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to voice their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to build a picture of safety. Politically it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst remarked.